ECB has to act in a particularly restrictive manner to re-establish the confidence of FX market

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To what extent does the fiscal situation restrict central banks? And what does that mean for the FX market? Economists at Commerzbank analyze the fisc

al situation in the US and compare it to that in Europe. 25 or 50 bps make very little difference Will the Fed gather from higher US yields that this has created sufficient restrictive effect? So that the rate path does not have to be raised even if inflation developments are disappointing? That would lead to a deterioration in the relation of interest rate and inflation levels and weaken the USD.

Will the ECB consider the rise in yields, in particular the disproportionate rise in yields in those Eurozone countries with high debt levels to constitute an argument against higher yields? To re-establish the confidence of the FX market in the ECB which has been weakened over the years, the central bank would have to act in a particularly restrictive manner under Lagarde’s leadership. It was unwilling to do that most recently.

 

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