A U.S. stock market perched at record highs received an encouraging message from the Federal Reserve, after the central bank stuck with its rate cut projections for 2024 despite stronger-than-expected economic growth.
“This is a Fed that wants to cut rates and believes inflation is coming down and will continue to come down,” said Jason Draho, head of asset allocation Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management. The Fed late last year helped drive an equities rally when it signaled a coming pivot to rate cuts, following a hiking cycle aimed at bringing down inflation that had reached 40-year highs. The Fed last raised rates in July 2023.
The projections align with those held by many investors: 62% of fund managers in a recent survey by BofA Global Research said they expected an economic soft landing. Still, some investors were doubtful the Fed would be able to deliver 75 basis points of easing shown in its “dot plot,” which shows the rates outlook of each of the Fed’s 19 policymakers, given the underlying strength of the economy and the stickiness of inflation, which remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
Expectations of a tougher slog were reflected in the Fed’s projections, which suggest policymakers may be more inclined to keep rates higher for longer to make sure inflation does not stall out above their goal, or flare up again.
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