Buffett's 2024 Investment Wisdom: Psychology Matters As Much As Financials

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Buffett Notícia

Warren Buffett,Charlie Munger,Berkshire Hathaway

I am the editor of three Forbes investment newsletters: Forbes Dividend Investor, Forbes Billionaire Investor and covered call writing advisory service, Forbes Premium Income Report. Prior to joining Forbes in 2001, I was a producer and reporter at CNN Financial News, focusing on stories about entrepreneurship.

Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting on May 4 in Omaha, Neb., was Warren Buffett's first since Charlie Munger passed away last November.Value investors worship Warren Buffett. But his amazing investment success stems as much from his astute understanding of consumer behavior as it does from his ability to ferret out financial bargains.arren Buffett is something of a national treasure. Since 1965, his Berkshire Hathaway has delivered a 19.

Below are some edited highlights from the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in Omaha with special attention to how behavioral psychology weighs heavily on some of his largest holdings like Apple, which now represents 43.3% of Berkshire’s $336.9 billion stock portfolio. Maybe I’ve used this example before, but if you talk to most people, if they have an iPhone and they have a second car, the second car cost them $30,000 or $35,000, and they were told that they could never have the iPhone again, or they could never have the second car again, they will give up the second car. Now, people don’t think about their purchases that way, but I think about their behavior, and so we just decide without knowing.

CNBC’s Becky Quick noted that Berkshire’s recent quarterly report showed that it had sold 115 million shares of Apple. Quick then conveyed this question from a 27-year-old Malaysian shareholder: “Last year you mentioned Coca-Cola and American Express being Berkshire’s two long-duration partial ownership positions, and you spent some time talking about the virtues of both these wonderful businesses.

I would say with present fiscal policies that something has to give, and I think that higher taxes are quite likely. If the government wants to take a greater share of your income, or mine or Berkshire’s, they can do it, and they may decide someday that they don’t want the fiscal deficit to be this large—because that has some important consequences, and they may not want to decrease spending a lot—and they may decide they’ll take a larger percentage of what we earn and we’ll pay it.

China’s stock market has been in contraction. Over the past three years, the FTSE China 50 Index has returned -36%. Buffett was asked about his appetite for investing in companies based in China and Hong Kong, and he affirmed his belief that U.S. companies provide plenty of international exposure.: Our primary investments will always be in the United States. American Express does business around the world, and no company does business around the world like Coca-Cola.

Buffett was asked about how the emergence of generative artificial intelligence will impact the investment world and human life overall. He compared AI to the development of the atomic bomb.: I don’t know anything about AI, but that doesn’t mean I deny its existence or importance or anything of the sort. Last year, I said that we let a genie out of the bottle when we developed nuclear weapons, and that genie has been doing some terrible things lately.

We had a lot of fun doing anything, you know, we played golf together, we played tennis together, we did everything together. This you may find kind of interesting. We had as much fun, perhaps even more to some extent, with things that failed, because then we really had to work and work our way out of them.

Sometimes people would say to me or Charlie at one of these meetings, if you could only have lunch with one person that lived over the last 2,000 or so years, who would you want to have it with? Charlie says, I’ve already met all of them, because he read all the books. I mean, he eliminated all the trouble of going to restaurants to meet them. He just went through a book and met Ben Franklin. He didn’t have to go have lunch with him or anything of the sort.

 

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