Stocks finished Friday slightly lower as June OPEX passed. This week, we head into the quarter’s end, closing out the year’s first half. It should be a fairly uneventful week with little on the macro front, and thereport is not due until Friday. Fed speakers will be around, but it appears to be a fairly light calendar. The Treasury will also auction off theprices.
Even for July, inflation is expected to be non-existent, rising by just 0.1% month-over-month and by less than 3.0% year-over-year. So, either the markets are simply understating the risk to the inflation outlook for June and July, or something has materially changed in the economy over the past two months.
Something may have changed because we are seeing bank deposit growth. This could indicate that the money supply is starting to grow again, which may be slowing the velocity of money. As the velocity of money slows, inflation tends to come down. This phenomenon occurs because a slower velocity of money means that money is circulating less frequently in the economy, reducing upward pressure on prices.Given this context, it is unsurprising to see rates moving somewhat lower over the last few weeks.
We also saw the index trade within range following Thursday’s bearish turn lower, and given that it is not uncommon for the trend lower to continue, the symmetrical triangle from Friday also suggests a consolidation period and perhaps another leg lower to start the week.) had a large amount of gamma built up around $125 on Friday, helping to support the stock, but that appears to be gone now.
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