Business Brief: The Big Six earnings, and a spotlight on TD

As Toronto-Dominion Bank leads off Canada’s Big Six third-quarter earnings period next week, analysts are largely predicting the lenders will report minor gains or pains – but little to suggest the banks’ budding turnaround might get knocked off course.

For Canada’s largest lenders, who are emerging from a prolonged period of volatility marked by high borrowing costs and slower economic growth, “moderate” might do just fine. And in a research note to clients on Thursday, National Bank of Canada analysts said they’re maintaining a positive sector stand even as it warned of soft earnings this month. “A sufficient level of rate cuts should allow Canadian banks to avoid a sharp uptick in loan losses, as we’ve seen in previous downturns,” they wrote.

Fitch recently lowered the bank’s risk-profile score, citing shortcomings related to findings in TD’s anti-money-laundering practices, “which will continue to garner significant regulatory, political and potentially legal attention in both Canada and the U.S. over the near term.”As of May, roughly 9,500 residential mortgages were in arrears, meaning payments were overdue by three or more months, according to figures published this month by the Canadian Bankers Association.

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