The Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce its benchmark federal funds rate by a half percentage point has overshadowed thereleased last week alongside the Fed’s interest rate cut showed that the median forecast for the fed funds rate over the longer-term rose to 2.9 percent. This has risen three times this year, once for each of the releases of the projections. The projection is now higher than it has been since September 2018.
To understand what this means, it is important to remember that the Fed treats the two percent inflation target as. The fed funds rate and the unemployment rate get adjusted around what the Fed thinks will be required for the two percent inflation target. The median expectation for longer-run rate of unemployment has been as high as five percent and as low as four percent. It is currently at 4.2 percent.
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