Market Factors: Loonie haters, bargain shopping and the biggest breakthroughs of 2024

Today’s agenda: Global investors had been betting furiously against the loonie ahead of the Fed’s rate cut and might be poised to do it again according to Goldman Sachs. A BofA Securities analyst notes a major generational change in shopping behaviour which hurt my feelings as a child of the eighties. And Gizmodo sponsored a science fair uncovering some brilliant scientific achievements.

Expectations for relative bond yields were responsible for the mass cynicism on the domestic currency. Global bond investors look for higher yields. When Canadian bond yields are attractively high, for instance, foreign investors have to buy loonies in foreign exchange markets to execute trades to buy domestic bonds. This pushes the currency higher.

Hedge funds took profits on the bearish CAD bets at the end of July, before chairman Powell signaled impending U.S. rate cuts at Jackson Hole meetings in late. The net futures positioning has improved to -73,150 since, but Goldman Sachs analyst Kamakshya Trivedi is suggesting they should reload.

Apparel pricing is higher by only 5 per cent since 2019 in the U.S., indicating a strong move towards bargain hunting limiting pricing power. By comparison, U.S. grocery prices are up 30 per cent for the same period. Brilliant people have been busy in 2024. A team of geneticists recovered RNA from a museum specimen of a Tasmanian tiger. Researchers from West Virginia University uncovered a potential treatment of Alzheimer’s disease using ultrasound. Another group made progress on drugs that could increase longevity for dogs, another is building a supersonic aircraft without the sonic boom, and another created recyclable plastic.

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