The Popular $100K Year-End Goal for Bitcoin Has Less Than 10% Probability in Options Market

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Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.

The way BTC options trading on Deribit are currently priced suggests a 9.58% chance of prices rising above $100,000 by Dec. 27.At press time, the way options were priced on dominant exchange Deribit showed a 9.58% probability of BTC topping the $100,000 mark by the end of December, according to data source Deribit Metrics.

That said, it seems consistent with the steady bitcoin implied volatility, suggesting that market participants don't expect wild moves in the short term. Options-implied probabilities are calculated by using the Block-Scholes model or other pricing models that take into account factors like current spot market price, strike price, time to expiration, volatility, and the risk-free rate. Options-based probabilities are positively correlated with implied volatility: The greater the volatility, the higher the odds of bitcoin hitting certain levels.

The impending U.S. presidential election due on Nov. 5 could have far-reaching regulatory implications for the digital assets industry and could inject volatility into the market. Currently, the supposedly-pro crypto Republican candidate is ahead of his rival, Democrat Kamala Harris, in election polls. The election result will be declared on Nov. 8.

 

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