Market Factors: Why I’m not in a hurry to buy bank stocks

In this edition we discuss an analyst’s view that bank stocks are already pricing in better conditions in 2026, and then provide a list of tax-loss selling options. The diversion is bad news for top 30 over 30 winners and we look ahead to important data releases coming up.Q4/24 Bank Preview — Is The Market Setting Itself Up for Disappointment?

The S&P/TSX Bank Index is up 18 per cent since early August. That’s without dividends but includes TD’s volatility and meagre 2.3 per cent return for the period. The broad strength in the sector has occurred despite an operating backdrop characterized by deteriorating credit fundamentals and sluggish loan growth, according to Mr. Grauman.

The analyst believes the current rally is justified despite the potential for near-term volatility. He believes that markets are looking through upcoming loan loss provisions and focusing instead on bank management forecasts for better conditions in 2026.

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