How the U.S.-China trade deal will ripple through food, finance and energy

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The Phase I trade deal celebrated by President Trump and Chinese officials Wednesday received a mixed greeting from U.S. industries and markets.

Wednesday received a mixed greeting from U.S. industries and markets. Here is how some in the key sectors expect to be affected.Agriculture markets fell as traders grew skeptical over the deal’s payoff. Some traders expressed concern that the potential benefits of the trade truce are already priced in to commodities such as soybeans, cotton and hogs that are expected to benefit the most from increased Chinese purchases.

But doubts have surfaced on whether China will meet that target, particularly because the two governments have said they will keep secret the purchase benchmarks for individual commodities. The market is already looking for real evidence that China will follow through on its pledges of more purchases, and in big amounts.In soybeans, Brazil already has a freight advantage in shipping goods to China more cheaply than out of the U.S. Gulf.

By dismantling the wall to its financial market, China is counting on foreign financial firms to plow $1 trillion in fresh capital into the nation over the next few years, cushioning a slowdown in the economy and helping a transition to a more consumer-led growth model.Meanwhile, U.S. credit rating firms emerged as one of the winners. The trade agreement means debt graders such as Moody’s Corp. can join S&P Global Inc. in rating debt in China’s $14-trillion bond market.

“Robust protection of intellectual property is critical to incentivizing the development of new and innovative treatments and cures,” the Trump administration said in aThe trade deal doesn’t include an agreement on what’s known as “data exclusivity,” which temporarily stops rival firms from using data from the original maker of a product to develop their own versions. Drugmakers have been seeking greater protection for their branded medicines in emerging markets for years.

Though shipments of shale gas from American export terminals completed in the last three years have made the U.S. one of the world’s top suppliers, some newer projects have stalled without Chinese purchasers. The struggle to sign long-term sales contracts has undermined efforts to secure financing for the multibillion-dollar facilities.U.S. oil exports to China have also slumped because of the trade war. China skipped crude purchases from the U.S.

 

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