Air travel’s sudden collapse will reshape a trillion-dollar industry

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Bold airlines with enough funds may use the coronavirus crisis to make their fleets greener

international jamborees these days the Farnborough air show wrapped up on July 24th as a virtual event. Webinars featuring grim-faced executives were not as entertaining as noisy acrobatic displays by fighter jets. But commercial aviation’s most important showcase at least marked a point when heads began to turn away from the devastation wrought by covid-19 and towards what comes next.

Despite signs of life, particularly on domestic routes in large markets like America, Europe and China, the outlook remains uncertain. The wide-body jets used for long-haul flights stand idle. Carriers that rely on business passengers and hub airports are struggling. Although some American airlines expect a return to near-full operation next year, a second wave of covid-19 could dash these hopes. A small outbreak in Beijing in June set back the recovery in Chinese domestic flights.

This will open a big gap between what the pair, along with Embraer and Bombardier, makers of smaller regional jets, hoped to sell and what they actually will . According to consultants at Oliver Wyman, by 2030 the global fleet will be 12% smaller than if growth had continued unabated.

The engine-makers provide a case in point. Besides lower demand for their kit—Rolls-Royce was gearing up to supply 500 units a year to Airbus but will now probably make 250—they face a collapsing aftermarket for spares and fewer overhauls, points out David Stewart of Oliver Wyman. Airlines with in-house maintenance divisions can scavenge parts or whole engines from grounded planes.

As dark as the skies have grown for the air-travel complex, there are some opportunities. Airlines are restructuring. Europe’s big legacy carriers, under pressure from low-cost rivals, are slashing costs.has suspended 30,000 workers and wants to rehire them on less generous terms. Bankruptcies and cutbacks will leave gaps in the market, aircraft are cheap, once-scarce pilots are plentiful, and airports will have spare slots, if they are allowed to redistribute them.

 

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The least they could do if they are reducing the number of passengers on a plane is give me more room for my body to fit in the seat. I should not have to buy a first class ticket I can't afford just so my ass does not go numb.

really dont care much. Ive had run ins with airport staff & security in the past. Knowing these a-holes are now reaping their karmic actions gives me great satisfaction.

Days of flying are over

Isn't it what crazy leftists wanted in order to save climate? It is very suspicious

Will this make flights cheaper for a period of time? It's going to be interesting how they deal with these huge drops in revenue.

world_news_eng Your oracles are powerful.

Moms are the true 'essential' workers! We thank you!

RemarkHoldings $MARK

Thank God private jets got a special tax break in the Trump Tax Scam.

$838BN and at the first sign of trouble running to govt for a bailout. Airlines have made flying a big pain in the ass, nickle dime customers to death with fees, poor customer service, delays, overbookings, bumped from flights etc and C suites making millions for doing it..

As aviation staff members are voluntold to leave, jobs are reordered and operations become lean w/the help of automation and ArtificialIntelligence. When passengers return to the skies, airline travel will be a shell of its former self.🛬 BizAv

Won’t capacity have been a lot lower than 50% of 2019? Surprised they aren’t losing more revenue, tbh.

AirlineIndustry suffering mass drop in passenger numbers & hence profitability

Costs are just too high to fly....

Are all the elites happy now ? Richard Branson owes Delta $200 Million & not showing any signs of paying his debts. Kinda seems like he had pre knowledge of an imminent, engineered, premeditated, pandemic.

Lol...419bn 😁

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