FILE PHOTO: A nearly deserted Wall Street and the steps of Federal Hall are seen in lower Manhattan during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease in New York City, New York, U.S., April 3, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar
The market backdrop this time around could hardly be less dramatic. Spurred by Fed buying of assets, stocks have recovered their entire pandemic-related losses and are trading around record highs, while bond yields have been near record lows. “We fully expect that they are going down the path of average inflation targeting,” said Bob Miller, head of Americas Fundamental Fixed Income at BlackRock.Investors have been increasing their bets on inflation in reaction to the roughly $9 trillion in stimulus measures from central banks worldwide. Gold, a popular hedge against inflation and a falling U.S. dollar, is up 28% for the year to date and near record highs, while the dollar has fallen close to two-year lows.
The shift to looking at an average measure of inflation would be a “big deal” and help the central bank avoid the same negative interest rate policies adopted by central banks in Europe and Japan, Miller said. An average inflation target would allow inflation to make up for the periods in which it fell below the Fed’s target. The Fed, like most central banks, shoots for 2% inflation but has failed to meet that target for most of the past decade. With interest rates near historic lows, the central bank has fewer ways to help stimulate the economy.
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