The U.S. bull market is receiving a new lease on life from a surprising source: stock-market timers. In recent trading sessions, the timers have beaten one of their most rapid retreats I’ve seen in more than 40 years of tracking investment newsletters.
Just three weeks, ago, in contrast, the HSNSI stood at 65.9%. As you can see from the chart below, the HSNSI’s recent plunge rivals what happened during the February-March waterfall decline. That’s amazing, since the market’s early September sell-off — scary as it was — is child’s play by comparison. In contrast to a 34% plunge in the earlier downturn, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.01% from Sep. 2 to Sep. 8 lost less than 7%.
These sentiment changes are encouraging, according to contrarian analysis, since the hallmark of a major market top is bullishness that is stubbornly adhered to in the face of a decline. That’s definitely not what we’re experiencing now. The contrast with today is stark. Then the market timing community treated the decline as a huge buying opportunity. During the market’s decline earlier this month, the timers fell over themselves getting out of stocks.
its a guarantee to go up!
MktwHulbert The market has been ignoring fundamentals since the end of March, so it doesn't have that supporting it. It's been relying on the Fed stimulus & optimism, now those aren't there either. If all we're left with is technical analysis then what are bull holdouts depending on?
MktwHulbert
MktwHulbert What sheer nonsense.
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Source: BusinessInsider - 🏆 729. / 51 Read more »