From the potential passage of another stimulus bill,, and another surge in COVID-19 cases to news of a vaccine, an unexpected rise in unemployment, and pent-up consumer savings, these headwinds and tailwinds are what UBS strategist Keith Parker calls "cross-currents."
Their positive sentiment on the stock market is anchored towards a number of themes that they believe will offer investors an attractive upside and limited downside, or "asymmetry" in the parlance of investing. "We saw the record collapsing in inventories in the US relative to GDP despite such weak demand in the second quarter, so inventory restocking with demand recovering in Q3 and beyond, we should see a very healthy rebound in production," he explained. "So those companies and industries where we've seen inventory decline more than sales offer an attractive reward versus the risk.
They examined other themes such as a company's yield based on free cash flow, dividends, estimated 2022 earnings per share, as well as a company's growth based on level and change in next-twelve-month and 3-5 year EPS growth.
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