U.S. corporate earnings reports will shine a light on the uneven playing field in the year of the pandemic

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'The equity market is showing a lot of optimism, but below the surface, there’s an ocean of companies that are dealing with a crisis.” The third-quarter earnings season will kick off next week, and the numbers will reflect a pandemic reality.

The U.S. third-quarter corporate earnings reporting season will kick off next week and the numbers will reflect a second quarter dominated by the coronavirus pandemic that has created an uneven playing field in which some companies thrive, while others shrink and fade.

Sebastian Leburn, senior portfolio manager at Boston Private, agreed. “You’ve got the economy and the stock market, and you’ve got the S&P 500,” Leburn said. Gellert agreed. “It’s not as clear as better or worse. The second quarter was terrible, and this will be better than terrible, but still not necessarily good.”

Analysts are raising estimates for the first time in 9 quarters The earnings decline may be slowing, but the third quarter will be the third-straight quarter of declines, following 31.4% drop in the second quarter and 14.1% fall in the first quarter. And while Wall Street is estimating a significant improvement in the fourth quarter, the estimate currently calls for another double-digit decline, of 12.7%.

The sectors currently expected to perform the best are health care at negative 0.6% and information technology at negative 2.7%. Capital markets are full steam ahead After raising record amounts of capital in the debt, equity and convertible bond markets in the second quarter, companies continued to borrow or issue stock in the third quarter as they struggled to bolster liquidity.

“The whole point of the Fed lowering rates is to get companies to borrow more. And while companies won’t pay 0% on their loans, they will pay very little interest, so now is a great time to borrow. And with the Fed backstopping the bond market, there’s very little downside.” See now:IPO like it’s 1999: Snowflake and other software stocks pop as market nears dot-com-boom levels

The credit markets are reflecting more concern about the outlook than the equity markets, which is hardly surprising given there is so much capital to put to work.

 

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