Why America's economic recovery is stumbling as experts badly misjudge the labor market

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Friday release underscores just how much the labor market still has to recover, and that the climb won't be as easy as most economists anticipated. Even if April stands out as a gloomy outlier, the average pace of payroll growth suggests it could take years to fully recoup the millions of jobs lost to the pandemic. The jobs report was such a shock that it's hard to find a single explanation at first glance.

The April data serves as a wake-up call for the many forecasters who didn't even come close to guessing correctly. Whether models overlooked details like COVID-19 fears or bullish biases tarnished forecasts, economists need to reconcile how they were so wrong. The coronavirus pandemic has also been notable for the"she-cession," hurting female employment much more than men. The absence of affordable childcare and lack of in-person schooling around the country likely kept some Americans home instead of working, as born out by the April report, which showed women — who disproportionately take on childcare responsibilities — losing jobs through the month.

The April data does not quite agree with the chamber's argument, showing labor demand overshadowing anecdotes of a supply shortage. April job gains were strongest in lower-wage industries and in sectors with in-person jobs. The composition of last month's job additions"doesn't scream supply constraints as the problem," Nick Bunker, an economist at Indeed, wrote onSeparately, the number of Americans temporarily laid off ticked slightly higher in April.

 

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I worked 60 hour weeks making $11/hr for four years. By the end I was making $12.50/hr. My employer did not provide traditional health insurance coverage, and I almost died from Swine Flu in 2018. If employers want to act like the economy runs on despair, then it shall be so.

God is holy, we must also be holy. Accept Jesus (hope) Holy Spirit (Righteousness)

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