Property market fears wipe $46b off bank shares

Investors have wiped $46 billion off the market value of the big four banks in a week, betting that sharp increases in the central bank’s cash rate would end years of blockbuster growth in their mortgage books.

Commonwealth Bank lost 2.6 per cent to $94.95, National Australia Bank was down 2.3 per cent at $28.25, Westpac shed 3.7 per cent to $21.17 and ANZ Bank fell 2.3 per cent to $23.35, against a broader 1.4 per cent decline in the ASX 200 index on Thursday.MST Marquee senior research analyst Hasan Tevfik said the sell-off would continue while the property market remains under pressure, with banks no longer able to rely on growing their earnings by selling more mortgages.

“However, by April next year, if the cash rate rises to 2.35 per cent as forecast by Westpac, the maximum the same family would be able to borrow from the bank would be approximately $163,500 less than a year ago, before the hikes began,” she said. “It seems a bit too aggressive. The banks will probably have higher profitability than everyone is thinking, it’s a bit premature to chuck them all out this week.”Mr Tevfik said the Reserve Bank’s aggressive move on Tuesday to increase the cash rate by 50 basis points, which would ordinarily boost the banks by lifting the margin they earn on loans, had spooked investors.

ABS data released last Friday showed that the value of new home loans fell by a much deeper than expected $2.13 billion in April, with new lending to owner-occupiers dropping by $1.57 billion, or 7.3 per cent compared with March and $2.92 billion or 12.8 per cent from a year ago.Meanwhile, investor lending dropped by $557 million or 4.8 per cent from the previous month, but was up $3 billion, or 37 per cent, compared to April last year.

Mr Tevfik said the analysts’ focus on non-performing loans or fears about a broader recession were overblown, but it was difficult to see volumes growing in the current property market, especially with tighter lending restrictions.

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