The torrid runup in U.S. shares from June lows hit a wall as the earnings season wrapped up, with the threat of an economic recession still looming large amid warnings from Fed officials that the fight against inflation is far from over. That stance will likely be reinforced when Jerome Powell speaks Friday at the prestigious event in Wyoming’s Grand Teton mountains, which has been used by Fed chairs as a venue for making key policy announcements.
“There may be further downside to the ongoing bear market, justifying an underweight to risk assets,” wrote Jason Pride, the firm’s chief investment officer of private wealth. “With real rates still rising and prospects for 2023 rate cuts fading in the bond market, stock valuations look extremely stretched, especially if as we suspect, policy-driven economic slowing will prove an obstacle to currently optimistic 2023 earnings estimates,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a note. “Stocks are overbought. Sit it out for now.
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