Is this the last-chance saloon for job switchers? If there's a recession, the labor market may not be so rosy.

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People who start considering a job move now may land higher pay, but some employers use a 'first in, first out' rule during an economic downturn.

It’s a song that could be running through the minds of workers who have remained with their job during the pandemic, watching others shuffle themselves into new spots, careers — and higher salaries.

“‘Could it be that if you hold off another six months, that you’ll have a better one in six months? Yes, that’s possible. It could be that it’s worse — and I think that is where it’s changed.’” Average hourly earnings for all workers rose to $32.36, a 5.2% year-over-year increase, the August jobs report showed. That’s still shy of the 8.5% rate of inflation in July.

“In the summer of 2021, I think we were all pretty confident telling you, ‘You know what, you’re going to have an even better opportunity in six months.’ And I think it’s more uncertain,” said Guy Berger, LinkedIn’s principal economist. In LinkedIn’s own recent research, hiring inAugust hiring — as measured by users adding a new employer on their profile — was 6.5% higher than the previous month, but still 8.5% lower than April.

Better to avoid this cycle of guilt by being upfront at the beginning, Sutton said. “It’s almost a freeing conversation because now the guilt is gone. If you haven’t had a business review in the last six to 12 months, then ask for one,” he said.

 

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