While September has lived up to its reputation as a brutal month for stocks, October tends to be a “bear-market killer”, known for its historically strong returns especially during midterm election years.
Skeptics, however, are warning investors that negative economic fundamentals could overwhelm seasonal trends as what’s traditionally the roughest period for equities comes to an end. “Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 ,” wrote Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, in a note on Thursday. “Seven of these years were midterm bottoms.” 2022 is also a midterm election year, with congressional elections in November.
Skeptics aren’t convinced the pattern will hold true this October. Ralph Bassett, head of investments at abrdn, an asset management firm, said these dynamics could only play out in “more normalized years.” Strategists at Stifel, a wealth management firm, contend the S&P 500, which has fallen more than 23% from its Jan. 3 record finish, is in a bottoming process. They see positive catalysts between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the start of 2023 as Fed policy plus S&P 500 negative seasonality are headwinds that should subside by then.
Or month of the biggest crash markets have ever seen ? 😈
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