Timing the market has been a nagging question for investors ever since the stock market began its decline by roughly 25% in January this year. The right answer likely hinges on whether or not the Federal Reserve follows through with plans to raise its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% or higher next year.Timing the market has been a nagging question for investors ever since the stock market began its decline by roughly 25% in January this year.
The peak in interest rates matters for stocks Historical market data can give investors a good reason to be skeptical about the credibility of the Fed’s forecasts while market based expectations captured by the Fed funds futures markets and bond yields may be no more reliable. Still a factor that differentiates modern times from the persistent inflation of the 1980s is the elevated level of geopolitical and macro-economic uncertainty. As Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, said, the weakening U.S. economy, plus fears of a crisis breaking out somewhere in global markets, are complicating the outlook for monetary policy.
However, some on Wall Street are paying less attention to the Fed and more attention to market-based indicators like Treasury spreads, relative moves in sovereign bond yields, and credit-default spreads, including those of Credit Suisse Inc. CS Tavi expects trading in fixed-income to become as disorderly as it was during the spring of 2020, when the Fed was forced to intervene to avert a bond market collapse at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.
Looking ahead to next week Looking ahead to next week, investors will receive some more insight into the state of the U.S. economy, and, by extension, the Fed’s thinking.
Greedy friggin hedge funds and brokers...the only thing they care about is insane profits. Job numbers are beyond good. The Fed raising rates right now is a smart n safe option. I doubt inflation can stay at these high numbers.
Don't listen to Jerome Powell... Been disappointed in his work since he got this job.
Please stop pushing this fake 'Pivot' narrative that is extremely misleading for new investors. The stock market is not only about the federalreserve monetary policies as history have showed us many times!
Dumb! You had things going your way and instead of opting for a 1/4 hike, you went for 3/4! and plunged the world closer to recession! Remove 2/4 immediately!
Not happening yet
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