U.S. Treasury rates may have yet to peak after surging this year, but higher yields have made bonds more attractive in tumultuous markets as investors face a likely recession next year, according to Vanguard Group.
Vanguard said in its active fixed-income perspectives report for the fourth quarter that “the most prudent approach is to focus on a core allocation to higher-quality securities that are less sensitive to a weakening global economy.” Junk bond yields The sector’s 9.5% yield and average dollar price of $85 indicate that it’s cheap relative to history, Vanguard’s report shows, but corporate borrowers of high-yield bonds are considered risky as their heavier debt burdens make them more vulnerable to default during economic downturns.
But that’s probably not where they’re going to remain invested for a long period, as sitting in cash, money markets, and ultra-short bonds is unlikely to meet return expectations required by many investors over the long term, he said. “Recent history, however, has shown that bond investors have done well in the two years after an inversion has occurred,” the asset manager’s report shows.
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