Not Just The Housing Market: Recession Threatens 'Unprecedented' Manufacturing Slowdown Dragging Into Next Year

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'One of the steepest deteriorations in global trade since 2009' could spell trouble for the U.S. economy next year.

Growing evidence emerged this week that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, which have already caused a sudden collapse in the formerly red-hot housing market, have fueled an unprecedented slowdown for manufacturers—setting the stage for what could lead to a prolonged downturn in industrial production.... [+]Though the slowdown in the U.S.

Inflation, higher interest rates and growing recession fears have led to"slumping demand for goods in both the home-market and abroad," says Williamson, adding that new export orders last month"fell especially sharply" in a sign of"one of the steepest deteriorations in global trade since 2009," according to the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index.

In light of the weakness in exports, Bank of America downgraded its forecast for fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth to 1.2% from 1.4% a week prior, with the bank's economists predicting the U.S. will ultimately fall into a recession next year. One bright spot: Bank of America says its pessimism about the outlook for manufacturing doesn't include automakers, which continue to face a semiconductorNevertheless, the overall slowdown in manufacturing will"likely have a noticeable effect on economic activity and—perhaps—employment," Gapen notes, noting automobiles and auto parts make up only 5% of industrial production.

As experts weigh whether the nation may plunge into a recession, here’s how the economy is holding up:One of the hardest-hit pillars of the economy this year, the housing market has suffered from dwindling demand as the Fed's interest rate hikes drive up the cost of homebuying. According to the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday, pending home sales, which measure purchasing contracts signed on previously owned and existing properties, fell 4.

 

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