Frontiers | Economic cascades, tipping points, and the costs of a business-as-usual approach to COVID-19

Finally, the persistence of COVID-19 suggests two areas of future research. First, there have been multiple waves of varying severity since the initial year of the pandemic. It is possible that extending the counterfactual scenario presented here would suggest longer term economic strategies that could be adopted to better address long-term shocks to socio-economic-health systems.

The variance of predicted outcomes among SESs subjected to the counterfactual scenario, suggests that combining local structural economic data with dynamic epidemiological and economic models could form a basis for flexible policies going forward that are strategically designed to disrupt the spread of pandemics and simultaneously adhere to the highest and most compassionate moral and societal standards, even while minimizing inevitable economic damage.

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