As earnings loom, investors weigh recession resilience

As second-quarter earnings approach, investors are looking at beaten-down sectors which might gain ground regardless of whether the U.S. economy falls into recession this year.

Global fund managers increased their allocations to healthcare and banks by about 5 percentage points in June, while cutting holdings of popular recession plays such as cash and consumer staples companies, BofA Global said. Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial noted a “tug of war” in the market over the likelihood of a recession.

That will likely continue to weigh on stocks overall as borrowing costs increase. Overall, earnings in the S&P 500 are expected to fall 5.7% in the second quarter, largely due to declining margins, Refintiv data showed. “We think the Fed will do whatever it takes to get inflation back down close to 2%, and that’s why we think we will see a Fed-induced recession” in the coming months, he said.Medical devices and diagnostics are still benefiting from a backlog of delayed care during the coronavirus pandemic, and demand could continue to grow regardless of the direction of the economy, said Max Wasserman, a portfolio manager at Miramar Capital.

He is focusing on companies such as LPL Financial Holdings Inc and Morgan Stanley in the wealth management sector that appear to have more secular growth opportunities than the big banks, he said.“If rates stay higher for longer and the Fed has to battle inflation for longer that will only mean that these companies will earn more for longer and buy back more stock,” he said.

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