Stifel’s chief equity strategist Barry Bannister may turn defensive in U.S. stocks at the end of this year to brace for a potential economic downturn in early 2024, as the Federal Reserve may need to weaken the labor market that looks “too hot” to bring down stubbornly high inflation.
In his view, “a recession signal is 4.1% unemployment,” which could arrive in December, implying an economic contraction in the first quarter of next year. In the meantime, Bannister said he sees the S&P 500 leveling at around 4,400 for the remainder of 2023, with rising real yields pressuring growth stocks, according to the note.
See: ‘A year of two halves’: Stifel’s Barry Bannister expects a near-term rally in U.S. stocks — and trouble later in 2023Cyclical value includes areas such as banks, basic materials, capital goods, transportation, diversified financials, real estate, insurance and small-cap value stocks, he said, while describing cyclical growth as mostly “Big Tech.” That’s based on his view of rising real yields pressuring valuations and economic growth slowing without a recession this year.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Monday the central bank needs to raise interest rates further because inflation is now expected to be above the Fed’s 2% target for four years.Later this week investors will get a reading on inflation in June from the consumer-price-index, with CPI data scheduled to be released on Wednesday. The U.S.
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