Puzzled by the stock-market surge? Overshoots are the new normal, Bank of America strategist says

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Not just stocks but all sorts of assets are overshooting to both the up- and downside.

Stocks have surged this year without really anything going right, besides the rolling out of error-prone artificial intellligence chatbots. Interest rates have surged to a 22-year high, earnings are down from last year, and pandemic-era savings are being drawn down if not entirely exhausted.Strategists... Stocks have surged this year without really anything going right, besides the rolling out of error-prone artificial intellligence chatbots.

Historically, a 2-3 point rise in the savings rate also is recessionary, and already it’s risen from 3% to 4.6%. The unemployment rate so far hasn’t risen, though a 0.5 point to 1 point rise in the jobless rate also is typically recessionary. “It would be so ‘2020s’ for the economy to hit a brick wall just as everyone punts ‘soft landing’ into 2024,” they say.

They like emerging market/commodities as summer upside plays and credit and tech as autumn downside plays.

 

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