10 Regional Banks Expected to Buck a Weak Industry Trend

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Despite a weak industry trend, these 10 regional banks are projected to increase their interest margins in 2024, defying the dip in profitability caused by rising competition for deposits. Moody's recent credit rating downgrades and reviews for larger players have negatively impacted bank stocks.

Bank stocks took a pounding on Tuesday, after Moody’s downgraded its credit ratings for several smaller regional banks and put six larger players on review for possible downgrades. Below is a screen of bank stocks to highlight 10 that are expected to buck the industry trend for reduced profitability in their core businesses.

The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index BKX was down more than 3% in late morning trading on Tuesday, and it was down 14.9% year-to-date with dividends reinvested. In contrast, the S&P 500 SPX was up 18.8% for 2023. The banks will likely have nearly five years from now to comply with the new capital rules, which cannot be finalized until after the current comment period ends in November.

Among the 139 banks in the S&P Banks Select Industry Index, which is tracked by the SPDR S&P Bank ETF KBE, consensus net interest margins for 2023 and 2024 among analysts polled by FactSet are available for 138, and among those, margins are expected to contract next year for 102 banks.

 

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