Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey in the August report, which estimates vacancies as of the last business day of July. This is the first time openings have fallen below 9 million since March of 2021, when openings rose to 8.399 from 7.760 in the prior month.Wall Street analysts had forecast between 9.524 million and 9.570 million
, according to Econoday’s survey. The median forecast was for 9.559 million. So, the actual result was around 7.7 percent lower than the forecast.. Initially reported at 9.582 million, the June data were revised down to 9.165 million. That means that the openings for June were also the lowest since March 2021.
At the prepandemic peak—when the labor market was regarded as very tight by many economists, including Fed officials—the ratio was just 1.2. The historical average is 0.6 percent, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Many economists consider a one-to-one ratio an indicator of a healthy labor market.
The historical peak was back in the very hot labor market of the late 1960s, when the ratio climbed above 1.5. So, the current ratio still represents what would historically have been consideredInterestingly, despite all the attention this ratio has received over the last few years, it garnered very little focus previously.
Earlier this summer, a trio of researchers at the San Francisco Fed took a close look at the question. They
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