UBS is sticking by its view of a "softish" landing for the U.S. economy, saying inflation is moving closer to the Federal Reserve's target without a recession this year.
"August was a tough month for investors," said Mark Haefele, global wealth management chief investment officer at UBS, noting that the S&P 500 ended last month down 1.6%. "Contradictory evidence and conflicting interpretations of economic data, asset pricing, and the outlook for Fed policy have buffeted asset prices in recent weeks as expectations of a soft landing for the US economy have ebbed and flowed.
Some remaining uncertainties could still keep market on edge, Haefele said in the Monday note. Last month'scame out well above the Fed's target, which could sustain the possibility of another rate hike, the analyst said. UBS is also watching for a potential rebound in savings rates and further cooling in the labor market.
"Our base case view is that by the November FOMC meeting, the economy will have shown clear signs of slowing, leading the Fed to finally put an end to its sharpest rate hike cycle since the 1980s. We expect US Treasury yields to fall by year-end as both US economic growth and inflation moderate," Haefele wrote.Investors are preparing for what history says is the weakest month for markets.
In September, traders will weigh fresh data from economic reports, including the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. Traders also await September's two-day Fed meeting, during which central bank policymakers will announce their interest rate decision Sept. 20.
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