Retail theft isn't actually increasing much, major industry study finds

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Retail shrink, and theft’s role as a share of it, is largely in line with historical norms, even as companies call it out more, according to a major NRF survey.

Retail shrink climbed in absolute dollars, but when reported as a percentage of sales as is commonly done, average annual shrink increased to 1.57%, up from 1.44% in 2021. The share is largely in line with past years. Average annual shrink was 1.62% of sales before the pandemic in 2019, though it was as low as 1.33% in 2017, according to previous surveys.

The NRF report said 78% of the retailers that responded to the survey do not include e-commerce goods in their shrink calculation and 57% don't include supply chain losses, so"the actual dollar loss associated with shrink is likely heavily underreported." "Far beyond the financial impact of these crimes, the violence and concerns over safety continue to be the priority for all retailers, regardless of size or category," David Johnston, vice president for asset protection and retail operations at the NRF, said in a press release.Locked up deodorant to prevent shoplifting are seen at a Duane Reade drugstore and pharmacy on August 24, 2023 in New York City.

Meanwhile, 45% of retailers in the survey said they have reduced specific store hours to deal with crime and violence, nearly 30% said they somehow changed store product selection, and 28% reported closing a specific location because of crime.

 

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