The global sugar market has been jittery for weeks on concerns that poor rains will crimp output and prompt India to restrict shipments to contain local prices ahead of an election next year. The nation’s food secretary is confident about the crop, but traders, analysts and millers say curbs are coming.
Overall, India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall was 6% below normal as of Sept. 28, according to the nation’s weather bureau, but the shortfall has been even bigger in some regions. Parts of Maharashtra have seen about 14% less rain, while in some areas of Karnataka, it’s been 27% lower. According to a Bloomberg survey of 13 analysts, traders and millers, most said India may not export any sugar in the new season starting Oct. 1 due to lower output. Two respondents said shipments could total at least 2 million tons.
India’s domestic sugar prices have gained about 5% so far this year, according to data compiled by the food ministry. The government indirectly controls costs as it regulates the volume millers can sell each month.
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