Consumer Stocks’ Struggles Are Denting Hopes for a Soft Landing

The confidence of US shoppers, which seemed indomitable until very recently, is a key underpinning of the bullish expectation that the US economy might avoid a recession, despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes. But now signs are emerging that consumers may be feeling the pinch.

“The triple whammy of higher interest rates, higher energy prices, and the restart of student loan repayments, are all likely to weigh on the consumer, especially the lower-end income cohort,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. That can make the economy “harder to land.”

Though initial weakness has started to show, some proponents of the soft landing scenario are still undaunted. Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said his firm’s strategists still expect a soft landing for the US economy, spurred by continued strength in consumer spending.

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