Posthaste: Forces are gathering against Canada's housing market

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Home sales and prices were already weakening, but now further declines are likely as mortgage rates rise amid bond market rout. Read on.

Canadian government bond yields have risen to their highest since the financial crisis in recent days, and this rise could pose aThat’s a 150-basis point increase since April, which Brown says is equivalent to a hit to affordability of about 13 per cent.will put more buyers on the sidelines, but even before the home price outlook had deteriorated more than Capital economists had expected.

Toronto-Dominion Bank economists also see a “more pronounced and extended downturn” for the housing market than they envisioned in June because of rising bond yields.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.They now see home sales and prices falling in the last quarter of this year and into 2024.

Homebuyers might get some mortgage relief if Canadian bond yields start to edge down by the end of this year as the economy softens and market bets on“We suspect that it will take until 2025 for Canadian home sales to sustainably surpass their pre-pandemic level,” Sondhi said.Economists say the latest bumper crop of jobs probably isn’t enough in itself to tip the scales to another hike by the Bank of Canada, but it sure helped build the case.

 

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