Payrolls vs the unemployment rate: Why the US labour market is softening?

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The US labour market report delivered much stronger than expected payrolls for February, rising by 275k, vs.

the 200k expected. However, the unemployment rate edged higher, and rose to 3.9%, from 3.7% in January, its highest level for more than 2 years. Average earnings growth moderated as expected, with the annual rate rising by 4.3%, and the monthly rate rising by 0.1%, the monthly growth for wages in January was 0.5%. This labour market report also included significant revisions.

The Household data survey creates the unemployment rate, while the Establishment Data survey creates the payrolls data. The household survey was much weaker than the establishment survey in February. The household survey reported a 334,000 rise in the number of unemployed, pushing the total number of unemployed people to 6.5mn, a year ago this was 6mn.

 

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