© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., March 20, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoNEW YORK - After a stellar start to the year for stocks, investors are on guard for potential bumps in the second quarter as they gauge whether the Federal Reserve delivers on an expected interest rate cut by June and turn their focus on the health of upcoming earnings.
Futures markets are now implying a 61% chance of a 25 basis point cut rate at the Fed's policy meeting that concludes June 12, bringing benchmark rates to a range of 5 to 5.25%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Economic readings next week, including ISM manufacturing data, ISM services, and the closely-watched non-farm payrolls report, which economists polled by Reuters expect to show a growth of 198,000 jobs in March.
"The market deserves the benefit of the doubt and at this point we think bull market rules apply," Lerner said. The biggest risk to a continued rally would be a sign that the Fed is considering keeping rates at current levels through the end of the year, which would lead to"dramatic" repricing of risk assets, he said.