Just when it looked like rate cuts were coming any minute now, inflation has reared its head and the strength of the dollar is forcing other central bankers to protect their currencies and reconsider their policy choices.
Those “concerns” will also inform a G7 statement, reaffirming the undesirability of excessive currency swings, something the G7 hasn’t done since October 2022. In one day, Indonesia’s rupiah returned from the Eid al-Fitr holidays to a four-year trough, the Korean won slid to its weakest in over a year, while the Indian rupee and Vietnam dong tumbled to record lows.
Bank Indonesia meets April 23-24, and analysts see a growing risk of a rate hike from the central bank that was once expected to be among the first in the region to cut.Sticky U.S. inflation and oil up 14% this year means price pressures are back in focus. Yet the latest U.S. inflation numbers and Middle East tensions keeping oil high means investors are nervous. A key gauge of market euro area inflation expectations has touched its highest since December.