board is docked at BLG's car terminal in Bremerhaven . The BYD Explorer No.1 has arrived in Europe from Shenzen in China. Photo: Lars Penning/dpa European electric vehicle sales growth has plateaued while the industry gears up to embrace the all-electric new car world.
EV sales from about 2020 were spurred on by well-to-do early adopters, then corporate “buyers” and employee schemes to use tax and salary schemes to go electric. But the likes of GM and Ford in the U.S. and Mercedes and Volkswagen in Europe have been pulling back as sales growth faltered. Even Tesla sales are under pressure as it slashes prices.
Despite this potential gaping hole in the market, analysts are sticking to their forecasts for 2030, which based on government mandates, are more than four times current EV sales. The mandates should mean about 80% of new car sales in Europe and the U.K. would be EVs by 2030. 100% is the law for 2035. Currently, most forecasts are huge, but not that huge.
“The legal requirement to cease all new ICE sales from 2035 remains in place, and the broader mandate to transition to EVs is still widely supported by policymakers,” Jefferies said.Policymakers not necessarily manufacturers, and these rule-makers might have a change of heart after the European Parliamentary elections in early June, where the issue of “Net Zero by 2050” is becoming contentious.
China has a huge array of cheap EVs already in production which would be snapped up by European buyers if imported here. That would protect CO2 targets but might deliver a mortal blow to European manufacturers.