) has witnessed a resurgence thanks to the likely intervention of the Bank of Japan. This move by the central bank is aimed at strengthening the yen, but it raises questions about the potential implications for global markets.
Um, a month ago, you know, people were a little concerned the higher for longer things seemed like it was gonna take hold.I think we go, I just put a note out this morning, put a more specific target, 5500 this summer.I think we get to 5800 by year end with upside to the next big round number in Q one of next year at 6000.
And the last thing I would say about NVIDIA, uh for those that look at charts like myself or those that look at spreadsheets like um actual investors, it's, it's one of the rare examples where the stock's gone up 700% from the bear market lowest, but yet the multiple remains the same. Despite this strong global bull market, Microsoft has outperformed the group, but it's largely underperformed the other mag we'll call the mag six tesla belongs in its own category.It's outperformed semiconductors as a sector.Um This is a stock that just off of the lows lost 75% of its value.
The stock has lagged and continues to lag, not just the S and P but again, that, that mega cap cohort if you will on a year to day basis, still down 3% again in a world with an S and P up almost 10% year to date global market surging. But, but keep in mind even when you talk about Amazon, as much as some people, the bears like to point to the late nineties and say, oh it's the tech bubble all over again.You can draw a line that connects you to the highs that you made in 20 one.
And, and at times it does not just because you've made it all the way back to a prior reference point doesn't mean you've earned the right to break out and start a new bull market. Um But again, I think you have a lot of macro cross currents coming together at, at the same time, which is we, we have the, the prospect for the first interest rate cut, uh whether it's in September, December.It seems like it continues to be a moving target, but these are the forces from the top down that are driving that weakness in dollar yen.Uh But again, we're finally starting to see that narrative ebb as it were as we eye that first rate cut here in the US.
All right, for our viewers on the streaming platforms, we're gonna take a quick volatility pause for everybody else.Um You gave a great explanation of where we are in the business cycle with what the yen uh might be telling us. So I think China is in a really strong, let's call it a tactical position, even if we'll step back from calling it a bottom in the short term.So you're in the best technical position you've been in, in years in China.
But again, every market has its price and you know, a bottom is a function of both price and time they've been in the penalty box now for over three years, valuations getting down to that trough prices.Which is an excellent question.but um could be in for a monster bounce here. But all of that said in terms of making money rather and then having fun, um, it's interesting that all of these things that start with the letter R that you allude to and, and we didn't make these up.
Again, res sort of get painted unfairly uh because it's not a pure plan, commercial real estate by stretch.But all of that said Russell 2000 another are small cap stocks. Um and, and, and again, they teach you about it in the book and then we play the games in the real world every day from 930 to 4. But office res again, just one part of, of the reed landscape and you know, you know, I don't want to do the sector a disservice because we, you know, it's really one of our, our best silos or verticals that we have and we have the experts in the field that are so much better equipped to handle it.
In reason, in my humble opinion, you, you've been doing the heavy lifting of putting this bottom in the charts. Um keep, keep in mind, interest rates were still low at the time, they had just begun their kind of climb.
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