Calling tops and bottoms in the stock market is the Holy Grail for investing analytics. Alas, success on this front is nearly impossible, at least in terms of timely precision. Yet some of us still venture down this path.
With that in mind, let’s check in on an effort to quantify so-called bubble risk for the S&P 500 . There are many ways to approach this task and the chart below is but one flavor. The current reading suggests the. How did that signaling fare? Results are mixed, at best. The following month the market corrected sharply, but has since resumed an upward run and is now close to reaching a new high.
The value of monitoring valuation/bubble risk and trend is that when the two are in agreement, the related risk analysis is arguably more persuasive. On that assumption, which is backed up by the historical record to a degree, the current state of market conditions leave room for debate about the near-term outlook.
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