discusses the long-term positive impacts that President Biden's tariffs on Chinese imports will have on American industry, including for the energy sector and green energy initiatives.We are giving you the ultimate investing playbook to help tune out the noise and make the right moves for your money.
And I think many people and I share this opinion is going A I is going to change things as much as the internet did when it came about 3040 years ago.And as you said, it's been a, a key component to the overall growth in this market.If you go back and look at all the eight cycles going back to 1950 you look at all those slow cut rate cycles, the average return from the very first cut is about 23%.
Also we on the flip side, tech, the big winner today JB Circuit, the contract chip maker, electronics maker, leading gains there today after its earnings, industrials also doing well and just quickly as well want to go back and take a look actually at what's going on in the commodity market. I think increasingly it's becoming clear that interest rates are simply normalized back to where they were before the great financial crisis.So I don't think that we actually need the fed to cut interest rates for the market to continue to go up on earnings.So do you what you, what's gonna be the main sort of tail wind for the continued gains in earnings that you are expecting?
And then I think we're gonna see better than expected economic growth lower than expected inflation with real wages going up and expanding profit margins. So I, I think that's where the story lies is in the productivity boom uh based on the productivity uh revolution ed, what do you think is the biggest risk to further upside in the market?Anticipate recessions.
Uh, and then in April we had to sell off as, as you typically do when there are too many bulls and not enough bears.But, uh, all in all I think the market, uh, is, uh, is in good shape from a fundamental perspective in terms of earnings, uh, valuation is, is, is definitely stretched. I told him to take the rest of the year off and I, I haven't heard them announce that they will do that.Look, uh I think the economy is gonna continue to grow with inflation moderating.Uh uh My concern actually is if they do come in and lower interest rates and then we'll have uh something more like the late 19 nineties where uh you know, party like it's 1999 that uh would, would be the song that comes to mind.
JP Morgan has a lot of ca extra capital even by their own standards saying that um he did not want to buy back more of the stock at these prices. Um But then we have this combination of the commercial bank and the investment bank and trading and all these other things that's cib the, the commercial and investment bank and that's a new reshuffling of management.
But beyond that, you know, this is a comment that comes from CFO Emily Reuter at the JP Morgan conference and she said basically she doesn't exede that she doesn't expect them to, to exceed their gross transaction value grid. The other thing is most of the analysts I saw said that they expected that the company had already sort of telegraphed it was doing this.And so that would be a prime short squeeze uh candidate.He said it's interesting that unlike a few competitors, hims is only offering compounded G LP ones and this is for 100 and 99 a month or 199 a month.That would be we go vo ZIC, but that's just for now, it could change later.
Those types of investments that you make that have to be enduring for multiple years need to have the backdrop of a stable policy environment.So the type of policies and tariffs that were put in place announced last week, plus some of the other changes made by the administration give companies like mine as well as others confidence to make these types of investments.
And when we, we see ourselves through the next couple of years as we exit 2025 we'll have 14 gigawatts of capacity.30,000 jobs here in the US with a domestic manufacturing supply chain and a $2.8 billion annual payroll impact.Um We provide certainty to our customers and it's showing up in the demand for our product um mark uh while these tariffs may be good for the the uh domestic solar industry, they're not necessarily good for the domestic energy transition.
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