The fast-food industry has been wringing its hands over the devastating impact on its business from California's new minimum wage law for its workers. Their raw figures certainly seems to bear that out. A full-page ad recently placed in USA Today by the California Business and Industrial Alliance asserted that nearly 10,000 fast-food jobs had been lost in the state since Gov. Gavin Newsom signed the law in September.
cited Ohanian's article as the source for its claim in its USA Today ad that 'nearly 10,000' fast-food jobs were lost due to the minimum wage law. 'The rapid job cuts, rising prices, and business closures are a direct result of Governor Newsom and this short-sighted legislation,' founder and president Tom Manzo says on the organization's website. Here's the problem with that figure: It's derived from a government statistic that is not seasonally adjusted. That's crucial when tracking jobs in seasonal industries, such as restaurants, because their business and consequently employment fluctuate in predictable patterns through the year.
paints. In that business sector, September employment rose from a seasonally adjusted 730,000 in 2022 to 741,079 in 2024. In January, employment rose from 732,738 in 2023 to 742,495 this year. Restaurant lobbyists can't pretend that they're unfamiliar with the concept of seasonality. It's been a known feature of the business since, like, forever.
, didn't respond to my request for comment. Ohanian acknowledged by email that 'if the data are not seasonally adjusted, then no conclusions can be drawn from those data regarding AB 1228,' the minimum wage law. He said he interpreted the Wall Street Journal's figures as seasonally adjusted and said he would query the Journal about the issue in anticipation of writing about the issue later this summer.