CREA cuts housing market forecast for 2024 despite June sales rising

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The Canadian Real Estate Association says it is scaling back its housing market forecast for the remainder of the year amid increased levels of supply and a quiet spring spurred by fewer interest rate cuts expected in 2024.

The association said Friday it anticipates a gradual rebound in the national housing market, with 472,395 properties forecast to trade hands this year to mark a 6.1 per cent increase from 2023 — down from its forecast in April of a 10.5 per cent gain.On a year-over-year basis, the number of homes that changed hands in the month fell 9.4 per cent, reflecting stronger activity in spring 2023. But CREA said sales ticked up 3.7 per cent on a month-over-month basis.

The Bank of Canada began its rate-lowering process with a June 5 cut that brought its key interest rate down to 4.75 per cent from five per cent. "I think if they're significant enough, we could see a bit of a surge in activity by mid-to-late Q4," said Lusink, adding he would be "surprised if we didn't see rate cuts throughout the remainder of the year."

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CREA cuts housing market forecast for 2024 despite June sales risingThe Canadian Real Estate Association says it is scaling back its housing market forecast for the remainder of the year amid increased levels of supply and a quiet spring spurred by fewer interest rate cuts expected in 2024.
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