NFP Preview: Are the Fed’s Fears of a Jobs Market Slowdown Justified?

Leading indicators point to a below-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 125K-175K range.

In this case, though, there may be more potential for volatility than meets the eye at first glance. In the Fed’s monetary policy statement and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, policymakers were clear to emphasize the “balanced” risks between a slowing labor market and elevated inflation. Specifically, Powell noted,

In terms of the NFP report, traders and economists are anticipating a slight moderation from last month’s jobs growth, with wages and the unemployment rate expected to come in roughly in line with recent trends:As regular readers know, we focus on four historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap each month’s NFP report, but due to the vagaries of the economic calendar, we won’t get access to the ISM Services PMI report until after the NFP report:Finally, the 4-week moving average...

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