Shelly Kaushik, economist of BMO Capital Markets, joins BNN Bloomberg and talks about the U.S fed's rate path following U.S. jobs data.was a notable curve ball in understanding the U.S. economy. It was only weeks ago that we saw an employment revision that wiped out 818,000 jobs. So, what gives? The bottom line is that the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee’s reaction function is based on the data we see that, while subject to revision, is the data on the ground.
But the part that is hard to reconcile is that the manufacturing economy has been in recession for close to two years, but other sectors have more than made up for it. Kostin somehow thinks that 22X EPS is fair value, where we are in the 18X range . The Sahm rule seemingly has failed for the first time to identify a recession. Or is this all just bad data subject to massive revisions?
This chart shows analyst bottom up forward 12-month consensus EPS consensus versus the S&P 500 and measures the deviation with a 10-year Z-Score . Generally, when the market is 1-2+ standard deviations cheap to forward based price targets we want to be a better buyer, and when 1-2 standard deviations expensive a better seller.
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