Conflicting economic signals are causing confusion in the bond market

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Bonds News

Economy,Jerome Powell,Stock Markets

Bond market investors are having trouble figuring out an economy that looks good from 30,000 feet, but less so closer to the ground.

Treasury yields have been surging over the past month or so, even with Thursday's decline , helping pull down stocks this week. While a variety of reasons have been cited, one of the most popular is the simple notion that the Federal Reserve is closer to achieving its much-touted soft landing in which it can use high interest rates to bring down inflation without wrecking the broader economy. Higher growth expectations generally translate into higher bond yields.

Looking under the hood, though, manufacturing is "declining," banking activity appeared slow, commercial real estate was "generally flat" while both the agricultural and energy sectors reported conditions flat to "down modestly." The jobs picture was nothing to brag about either, with more than half the 12 Fed districts seeing "slight or modest growth" in hiring though there were scant indications that layoffs are accelerating.

 

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