Commercial property investment sales in 2024: a sense of déjà vu but signs point to a better 12 months ahead
As we near the end of 2024, we expect all investment sales across the country to total €2.3 billion, which is not dramatically different from 2023. The above concerns affect all countries. However, at a local level, Ireland has record levels of employment with an unemployment rate of 4.4 per cent. Household savings are at an all-time high and the exchequer has been running a surplus. Retail sales are resilient. GDP, which is expected to marginally decline this year, is expected to increase by 4 per cent next year and a further 3.6 per cent in 2026. Inflation is under control and our debt is falling.
In Ireland we will have a newly elected and mandated government with a five-year runway to implement decisions. And so, for 2025, I believe the Irish commercial property market will witness a recovery and we will see better activity across nearly all commercial property sectors. I expect debt markets to free-up as transactional activity gives lenders evidence that a floor has been reached.