Legendary economist Gary Shilling: stock market is far from the bottom - Business Insider

, the president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., spoke to Business Insider editor-at-large Sara Silverstein about the global recession. Following is a transcript f the video. Gary Shilling:

All the supply chains, they have been disrupted. I think that's one of the most important things that's happened out of this whole deal is the realization of how dependent we are on the rest of the world. For example, most of the basic chemicals that go into antibiotics are made in China, and you look at the face masks. They're made in China, a lot of these things. We're really seeing with this that show up in the supply chains just how difficult this is going to be.

I think that's a good analogy with the supply chain. You break one link in what's a very, very efficient system, and of course, supply chains are made to be efficient. As you produce things, you produce semiconductors in Korea, then you send them to Taiwan for assembly, and then to China to put in the cell phones, and they're exported to the west. You break that, and it's the same thing with the queen. The queen disappears, boy, you've got problems.

Honeybees are the most efficient pollinators. They're all from the old world. They came here with the European settlers. There are native pollinators, but they're not nearly as efficient as honeybees. I think the same thing. If we produce everything in this country, yeah, we could go back to that, and maybe we will.

Then once you get through that, and even if we do get this under control with more isolation and washing your hands... I hope you're washing your hands. I'm washing mine. My wife is telling me to wash them 20 times a day. My skin is wearing out, but when we get through that, then you see the effects of a slow down, the supply chain disruptions, and of course, everybody is talking about this.

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'Although cited frequently by various outlets as an expert, his accuracy has been called into question. According to reporting[9] by CBS News, Shilling's predictions were found to have a 38% accuracy rating, much worse than random chance, by an analysis[10] completed by CXO'

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