, assumed a hospitalization rate in the United States of 19% for those under 65 who were infected and 28.5% for those older than 65.
Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, and his team also assumed that between 20% and 60% of the population would be infected with COVID-19 over six to 18 months. That was before stay-at-home orders took effect nationwide, which slowed the virus's spread. Outside of New York City, a far lower percentage of the population has been infected. Granted, we're not even six months into the pandemic.
David Muhlestein, chief strategy and chief research officer at Leavitt Partners, a health care consulting firm, said one takeaway from COVID-19 is that models can't try to predict too far into the future. His firm hasfor hospital capacity that looks ahead three weeks, which Muhlestein said is most realistic given the available data.
Take Northwell Health, a chain of 17 acute-care hospitals in New York. Typically, the system has 4,000 beds, not including maternity beds, neonatal intensive care unit beds and psychiatric beds. The system grew to 6,000 beds within two weeks. At its peak, on April 7, the hospitals had about 5,500 patients, of which 3,425 had COVID-19.
As hospitals found ways to expand, government leaders worked with the Army Corps of Engineers to build dozens of field hospitals across the country, such as the one at the Javits Center. According to an analysis of federal spending by, those efforts cost at least $660 million. "But nearly four months into the pandemic, most of these facilities haven't treated a single patient," NPR reported.
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