Stock market analysis: 5 forces that will shape US demand in 2021, GS says - Business Insider

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Goldman Sachs says foreign investors will be the biggest buyers of US equities in 2021 and makes 4 other predictions for US stock-market demand in 2021.

Register here for Business Insider's live election webinar on Oct. 21, featuring three top investing mindsEquity allocations have rebounded to their highest levels in two years at 47% of total financial assets, just below the tech bubble peak, which sat at 51%, said Goldman Sach's equity analyst Arjun Menon in a recent client note.

"Foreign investors bought a total of $317 billion of US stocks in 1H, driven by investors in Europe, the Middle East, and Japan," Menon said. "Following two consecutive years of selling, investors in China were also net buyers of US stocks in the first half of 2020 ." On the other hand, US investors are expected to purchase $200 billion of foreign equities in 2021, Menon said. The annual average US investors spent on foreign equities was $120 billion over the last 10 years.US households are more than just retail investors; they include nonprofits, domestic hedge funds, private equity funds and personal trusts.

Goldman Sachs economists are also predicting faster economic growth under a Democratic sweep, which they believe will boost household purchases of US equities next year. Despite passive funds experiencing large outflows in the months following the equity market trough, the funds are now seeing a trend of inflows of around $36 billion, Menon said.Pension funds generally sell equities and buy bonds during periods of rising interest rates, Menon said. With interest rates expected to gradually rise, Menon expects that it will drive $250 billion of net selling next year.

 

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What kind of foreign investors? Chinese CCP?

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